I've been trying very hard to find reasons to be excited for this main event. This is the third fight in a row for Demian Maia where he has to face an opponent with top tier wrestling abilities. We all saw what happened in those previous two bouts, and it wasn't pretty. Maia has always relied on the take down, or the ignorance of his opponent to take him down, and when these things don't happen, Maia's fights become hard to watch. Woodley sprawled all night and boxed Maia's face off, I guess you can say Colby Covington did the same (kinda, not really, whatever), and I expect nothing less from Usman. Clearly, the formula to beat Maia is there.

As for Kamaru Usman, as mentioned before, his path to victory is relatively simple: kick-box and sprawl, for as long as it takes. Woodley and Covington both had Maia pretty hurt at times, and they still never followed him to the ground. The only person I can remember finding any success on the ground for an extended period of time with Maia is Rory MacDonald. But, Rory is probably the best welterweight on the planet, so he doesn't count. Point being, if you want to beat Demian Maia, just keep the fight standing. His stand up has never been impressive, while Usman's appears to be at least competent from what we've seen so far. I would assume Usman will mimic the strategies of Woodley and Covington and coast to a victory in this fight. That said, I can't shake this feeling that Usman will follow Maia to the ground at some point if he's really got Maia hurt, just to "prove a point to the welterweight division". Maia may be too broken at this point to make Usman pay for going to the ground, but we'll see.

There is still one variable that I don't think is being talked about too much. Maia is a huge welterweight, and hasn't had a full camp for this fight. His weight cuts with full camps are already horrifying; he looks pale, gaunt, basically like he's about to die. Am I saying Maia will miss weight? No, but it sure seems more likely than ever. And if he does miss weight, he'll gain super strength and be blessed by the Fatty Big-Mac(kenzie Dern) Missed Weight Gods, rendering my analysis pointless and submitting Usman in the first round. Fighters who miss weight in 2018 are invincible, in case you haven't heard. All jokes aside, I think Usman is a heavy, heavy favorite in this fight, and still will be even if Maia misses weight. Like, a reasonable miss, not 30 pounds off like Mackenzie Dern. If it seems like I'm mad at Mackenzie Dern, it's because I am. What she did was so unprofessional, and just the way she celebrated after she won... ugh.. For that stunt, she should be tarred and feathered in the public square, for all to see.

Okay, for real now, all jokes aside, Usman wins this fight easily, and in non-entertaining fashion. In rounds one and two, Usman will stuff all Maia's shots and beat and bloody him up on the feet. In round three, either the fight will be stopped by doctors because Maia is a bloody pulp, or because the referee is tired of seeing Maia pull guard every time he gets hit and graciously ends it. But, if Maia misses weight, I reserve the right to change my mind.

Usman via TKO, Round 3