UFC Fight Night: Liverpool - Till vs Thompson
It's finally upon us. The return of Wonderboy against the young, brash, and super talented prospect in Darren Till. Although the two previous UFC fight cards did actually deliver in terms of entertainment, both cards struggled to create a lot of excitement beforehand. This is not the case for this Sunday. Crazy enough, Till vs Thompson might be the only fight the common folk are interested in on the card, but it is so interesting and polarizing enough to carry the card itself. As of now, some betting platforms have Thompson sitting at +100(!), even though he started at -165. Maybe his hand is still broken. I would have to assume the scouser bettors are behind this, but this just adds to the intrigue of the fight, if you ask me.
This might be an unpopular opinion, but I think this might be too much, too soon for Darren Till. He won two decisions against nobodies before the Cerrone fight. Albeit, the Cerrone fight was impressive, but Cerrone is a bona-fide lightweight, and Till is a massive welterweight. I would have to assume that Till must have weighed around 190 on fight night, while Cerrone was no more than 175. He looked bigger, and he showed it, simply overwhelming Cerrone against the cage with barrages of strikes. That said, you would have a hard time convincing people that Till would only need one more fight after his two decision wins to face the #1 contender in the division. It just seems like way too big of a jump, especially considering who he beat to get this fight. I guess we got to give it up to Till, though; the kid can market himself for sure.
The path to victory for Till is a little murky. Can he catch Thompson hard on the feet? Sure, but it's not super likely to happen. Thompson is an undefeated kick-boxer who has mastered distance control and it has almost fully transferred over to MMA. He's flustered fighters with very respected stand-up games, notably Jorge Masvidal and Rory MacDonald. He was hardly touched, and point fought his way to dominant victories over both men. Even if you can land hard on Thompson, a la Tyron Woodley, you still aren't guaranteed a victory. Woodley dropped Thompson three times over their two fights, and couldn't put him away all three times. After finding that rare success against Thompson on the feet, it still came down to two razor close decisions in Woodley's favor. The point being, Till is not nearly the same kind of explosive, quick-twitch athlete that Woodley is, so it's hard to see him being successful in the kick-boxing with Wonderboy. And if Till can tag him, we've seen that Thompson is damn near impossible to put away (Woodley nearly ripped his head of with a guillotine in the first fight). If this fight plays out standing, which I expect it to, I see Wonderboy scoring and frustrating Till all night long (or all afternoon long if you live on the east coast).
This leads me to believe that Till will attempt a takedown at some point in the fight. I know Till said he's going to knock Thompson out on the second round or something like that, but if that doesn't happen, he'll shoot. If you watch Wonderboy's fights, they all do eventually, pretty much to no avail. Thompson has developed really strong takedown defense, some of it due to distance learned from Karate, and some of it from training. He's a lanky guy, and he makes it really tough to grab both of his legs at the same time. If Till can trip him, take him down, whatever, and get on top, this fight is completely different. All of Thompson's opponents who were able to put him on his back (two or so), generally kept him there. It would appear that Wonderboy can be susceptible to good Jiu-Jitsu, which I believe Till might have. He grew up in Brazil, so someone must have taught him the art of the butt scoot at some point. I know Till is probably better at and prefers to kick-box and fight with Muay-Thai, but I feel like any fighter that grows up in Brazil has to have at least a competent ground game. Am I stereotyping Brazilian fighters right now? Perhaps, but it's complimentary, I would say. Regardless, maybe Till rolls in for a heel hook like Rory did, but actually holds on, who knows? Till's (potential) ground game is an interesting variable for this fight.
Till is good, but he lacks the high, high level of experience that Thompson has. Wonderboy has seen it all, and Till has never seen anyone like Wonderboy. I'd bet that Till would say that Wonderboy has never seen anyone like him, which may be true, I suppose, but Wonderboy's overall experience will be a real difference maker in this fight. However, Till's time will come, probably sooner rather than later, just not this Sunday.
Thompson via Unanimous Decision
Update: Darren Till missed weight by 3.5 lbs this morning, but apparently had a valid reason for doing so. Stephen Thompson's team has been able to negotiate terms with the Till team and the UFC, and the fight is still on (for now). As per the terms of the agreement, Till is forfeiting 30% of his purse to Thompson, and he must weigh no more than 188 lbs by 1:00 pm EST tomorrow (the start of the main card). I actually believe this to be a pretty fair deal, considering the very tough situation Thompson found himself in this morning. Till is only allowed to re-gain 13.5 lbs before the main card tomorrow with a 188 lb cap, which is probably quite close to what Till would have weighed tomorrow had he made weight today. He's still going to weigh more than Thompson for sure, but he was already going to anyway. Teams in the future should take note of this situation; if your opponent misses weight, don't just take the fight "for the fans". No one is stopping you from negotiating fair terms with your opponent who came in heavy, not just in terms of purse forfeited, but weight caps as well. You can still be a man or woman of the people and heroically accept the fight against the heavy opponent, but still be intelligent in doing so. The stakes are simply too high in the UFC to allow your heavy opponent to re-hydrate at will, like you, even though he/she is starting heavier and didn't experience the full effects of the weight cut like you did. To the best of my knowledge, there were not any weight caps reported in the deals between fighters this past year when a fighter missed weight, and the result has been the same in every fight. Again, hopefully fighters take note of Wonderboy's negotiation strategy and implement it in the future.
With the weight cap and Till's reason for missing weight, whatever it is, there's going to be a lot on his mind come the fight. If Till is able to meet the cap and fight, I believe he is going to be at an even bigger disadvantage than before. Stephen Thompson will end the streak and be the first fighter to defeat an opponent who missed weight this year (unless Gillian Robertson defeats Meatball Molly during the prelims, as Molly McCann also missed weight by a pound today).
Thompson via Unanimous Decision - but it doesn't count if I'm wrong since Till missed weight ;)