The State of the UFC's Lightweight Division

Although Dustin Poirier delivered a very convincing win over Eddie Alvarez on Saturday night, the title picture at 155 still remains a bit murky. Conventional wisdom would lead us to believe that Poirier would be next for Khabib but, unlikely as it may seem, he may be the least likely of the guys at the tippy-top of the division that the UFC would give a shot at Nurmagomedov. To make my stance on the issue clear, I believe there are five lightweights who have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the division and should at least be considered for the belt. Obviously, there's the current champ, Khabib, then in terms of who should fight for the belt next, I have it as: Dustin Poirier-Tony Ferguson-Conor McGregor-Kevin Lee. These are the guys who would be heavily favored in a fight against everyone else in the division, excluding each other. Now, who the UFC would book for Khabib is a completely different story. 

We're all aware that the UFC is actively trying to book Khabib and Conor for the fall, probably in October, perhaps November. Obviously, in terms of pre-fight build-up and magnitude, this is the fight to make. Naturally, the purists hate this, and that's where I fall. Conor is Conor, so he's gonna get whatever he wants, a title shot, much to my dismay. Tony and Dustin are much more deserving at this juncture. I have a scenario mapped it out my head which I believe is fair for all parties, and is beneficial for both the UFC and its fans. Just roll with me here, okay. And pretend everyone is healthy and Conor is not in jail for some reason.

Book Conor McGregor and Tony Ferguson to headline the October card in a five round title eliminator. Technically, this fight was supposed to happen anyway. God dammit this is a great fight and you all know it, and I want to see it. Conor is coming off of a long layoff, and so is Tony. I believe Conor definitely needs to earn his shot at Khabib, and Khabib agrees with this, as far as I can tell. Tony has far surpassed earning a shot at the title, but we won't go in to that whole him vs Khabib thing right now. It makes me sad. Therefore, Conor gets a "tune-up" before Khabib, and we can see if he's even worthy anyway. As for Tony, you're not gonna get an argument out of him for this fight, I'd guarantee that. Plus, unlike Khabib, Tony, love him or hate him, has much more of a personality than Khabib in that Conor wouldn't have to completely market the fight by himself. Tony's unique and quirky trash talk, and seemingly genuine dislike for McGregor, would ease the burden on McGregor, which he would be grateful for. Tony deserves a "money fight", as he's not gonna be around forever. If I'm not mistaken, he turns 35 in February. He's earned it, it's only right. Conor would probably need some heavy duty convincing to take this fight before Khabib, but the UFC should be on board with this. If Conor thinks he's the best, he should have no problem with this. Therefore, if you're the UFC, you could hope for two McGregor fights in a 4-6 month span. Just root for Conor to beat Tony, make a ton of money that night, then book him against Khabib for even more cash in 2019. This would and should be absolutely orgasmic for Dana White. Milk the McGregor cow for as long as you can, because you can never predict what he's gonna do next. Or, if Tony wins, Conor gets humbled, which probably is a good thing, and we can book Khabib and Tony for the 5th time for shits and giggles. Moving on...

Book Khabib and Dustin Poirier for the MSG card in November. Dustin is the most worthy as of late, and I think Khabib only wants to fight people who have earned it in his eyes. Plus, there will be a contender in Tony or Conor waiting in the wings, which would add to the drama. Dustin has been finishing top guys left and right, has been active, and is in his prime. It makes sense to book him against Khabib. Additionally, Poirier is a very charitable and philanthropic guy (If you haven't heard, you can look it up). Dustin simply has a great story and I believe, if done properly, the UFC can really sell Poirier to the general public. He's so likable and super easy to root for. A great dog for a fight with someone of Khabib's stature. This fight can definitely sell more than some would think. As for the execution of this fight, I can't see Poirier winning, though. I'd have to think this one would go similar to the Barboza fight. Perhaps not as brutal, as Poirier is much more competent on the ground than Barboza, but it's just not enough. Khabib and his style is such a tough match-up for Poirier. That said, this shouldn't disqualify Poirier from getting the shot. Like I said, he's earned it, and this is MMA; He's got a puncher's chance at least. To be honest, this one probably isn't too different than a Conor-Khabib fight. Either Conor/Poirier ices Khabib, or Khabib ragdolls the guy for five rounds. Not to beat a dead horse, but this is why Tony-Khabib needs to happen. Tony's striking isn't Conor or Dustin's, but it's still damn good, and it's the ground battle between them that we all want to see. Finally, there's one more very minor moving part here, Kevin Lee.

Although I think Kevin Lee can actually give Khabib one of his most competitive fights, he hasn't earned it yet. He's supremely talented, but he needs to beat more guys. Either book him for the October or November card against Nate Diaz (unlikely) or Anthony Pettis. If neither of these materialize, it's gonna have to be the Gaethje-Vick winner. Or, if Eddie works out his free agency quickly and resigns with the UFC, perhaps Kevin Lee could fight him, most likely in November. Regardless, Lee needs at least one more win to be seriously considered for title contention, although he could definitely compete now. Important to note, I think Lee dominates any fight between him and Diaz, Gaethje, Vick, Pettis, or Alvarez.  After one more win over a top guy, he he will be in contention, no doubt. He's the darkhorse in this division right now, for sure.

I think this covers it all, but if I've left anything out or there's something you disagree with, let me know in the comments. Obviously, what I've laid out for you all is MY plan, in terms of what I think makes the most sense. Alas, I am not Dana White, so we'll see just how much of this comes true (probably none of it). Let's just hope we get some clarity on all this in the coming weeks.